Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Hindsight Is 20/20, But Sometimes What You See Isn’t Pretty

By Scott Soelter, Senior Vice President, Grubb & Ellis Tucson

This story is a forensic accounting of the time and dollars involved in taking a modest commercial development from a dream to a reality.  I remember when I began the project with my partner, Chris Whitson, and promised myself that after all the dust settled I would go through the process of looking back and quantifying the days and money that were spent to get our modest undertaking to where it is today – almost finished!

To start the process, I took a moment to go through the hundreds of electronic files that are stored on the hard drive of my computer.  Now I realize that it’s less than trivial to anyone under the age of 30, but I am still amazed at the everyday technology represented by a personal computer.  In days past a hard copy archive of any development project consisted of thousands of sheets of paper, all different sizes, and required at least two to three drawers in a run of the mill metal filing cabinet.  I now know that the electronic archive of the project that is the subject of this exercise contains 1.25 gigabytes and it all fits within a small part of the computer that’s on my lap as I type.  I also now know that the earliest electronic file in this mass of bits and bytes is a letter written to Chris that initiated our partnership and it is dated August of 2006.  Further review of all this electronic data reminds me that we really started to get going on the project in November of 2007.  As we often see written in this business, this is the true point of beginning.

Riverfront Plaza

Before I get into the economic details, I want to take moment to describe the physical scope of our development that we call Riverfront Plaza.  The project is located along the north side of Irvington Road, just west of I-19, in the southwest region of metropolitan Tucson.  The entire site is zoned unrestricted C-1 (City of Tucson) and contains approximately 7.0 acres.  Before we got involved there was a 10,000sf multiple tenant retail building constructed on the site in 2000.  Based on our preliminary planning we intended to develop 4 more commercial pads on the remainder of the site that would accommodate a free standing restaurant/bar building, two multiple tenant retail buildings and an 18,000 square foot two-story professional office building.


Lot 3 – 18,000sf multi-tenant
professional office building (50.0% occupied)
In order to execute on our preliminary site planning we needed to prepare and apply for a revision to an earlier approved development plan as well as reconfigure lot lines that were established by an earlier plat.  Our engineering consultants made our initial submittals for the revisions to the development plan and the plat sometime in October of 2007 and, at that time we conservatively expected that we would have all necessary site related approvals within 9 months.  Three submittals and close to 27 months later we finally had our site related approvals which means it took 3 times longer than we had originally anticipated.  This is despite the fact that our submittals did not involve any variance requests and represented a reduction in yield in terms of total area of planned improvements compared to the previously approved plan.


Why did this seemingly simple process take so long?  On the public sector side of the line, I attribute a significant allocation of cause to the inefficient, mostly obsolete and overly zealous design review process that was the aggravating norm from a couple of years ago.  On the private sector side of things, the fact that the quality control associated with the submittal packages prepared by our engineering consultants was generally poor is also to blame.  Lastly, and from the “The Buck Stops Here” perspective, I need to take a lot of the responsibility in that, retrospectively, I lacked the recent experience and general knowledge of the overall process to the point that my supervision of the city regulated entitlement process and the product coming from our engineers was not what it should have been.  We can file all this into the drawer marked “Live & Learn”.

Lot 1 – 6,300sf Buffalo Wild Wings Grill & Bar


Now I’ll move on to the economics of the deal.  To present this perspective, I am going to focus specifically on the 18,000 square foot professional office building that I mentioned earlier.  We began construction on the shell portion of this building late in 2009 and finished it in April of 2010.  Tenant improvements for the 9,000 square feet of preleased space were completed late in 2010.  In terms of land costs, site design and entitlement costs, as well as the cost associated with the necessary site improvements, a summary of the costs allocated to this building are as follows:



Land (25.0% allocation of total)                                                 $265,000
Site Entitlement Cost (25.0% allocation of total)                           60,000
Site Improvement Cost (25.0% allocation of total)                       260,000
Total Site Related Costs                                                              $585,000

Note:  Approximately $9,000, or about 15.0%, of the site entitlement costs were in the form of 23 different fees paid to governmental entities during the site entitlement process.

In terms of vertical costs, or those costs directly associated with constructing the building, we spent approximately $3,125,000 which breaks down as follows:


Building Design & Other Soft Costs                                         $650,000
Building Hard Costs (Shell & TI’s)                                           2,475,000
Total Site Related Costs                                                        $3,125,000

Note:  Approximately $180,000, or about 27.7%, of the “Building Design & Other Soft Costs” were in the form of 15 different fees paid to governmental entities during the building plan approval and permitting process.


Therefore, when all tenant improvements are in place (we still have 9,000 square feet in shell condition), the total cost of the building will come in at about $3,710,000.  Of this amount, $189,000, or about $10.50/square foot of building cost, was in the form of 38 checks written at 38 different times to a variety of city, county and state entities in order to be granted the “privilege” to commence construction.  The fees that stand out because of their magnitude are as follows:

·   $110,000.00 paid to the City of Tucson for impact fees related to the office use designation of the building.

·   $28,000.00 paid to Pima County Waste Water Management for sewer connection fees associated with the fixtures designed into 4 common area restrooms and a janitor closet.

·   $16,000.00 paid to Tucson Water for a 2” water meter hook up.


·   $10,557.43 paid to Tucson Water for a “permit and inspection fee” related to the permit and inspection related to the construction of underground water lines that we built and paid for to serve our site.

The fee that stands out the most in terms “how did they figure that one out” was the $10,557.43 fee paid for the permit and inspection of underground water line construction.  Again, this fee is related to the construction of onsite and offsite water facilities that we paid for entirely – nothing was “given” to us.  Not only do I consider the amount to be ridiculously high, insult was added to injury when it was explained to me that Tucson Water was in a “cost recovery mode” and therefore part of the amount was a $57.43 charge to recover the cost to process the permit and my payment.  Based on this explanation I’m thinking that medical marijuana must have been available to some long before others!  All in all, based on the appraised value of the building at the time of construction, the total of all of the governmental fees was equal to our project profit. 


Lot 4 – 10,000sf multi-tenant
retail building (100.0% occupied)
What’s my point to all this?  I freely admit that there is not a fee I enjoy paying and that I take a contrarian view to the overly used mantra that “Development doesn’t pay for itself”.  I am thoroughly convinced that this is a fallacious premise to frame any debate on the topic.  With somewhere between 20.0% and 25.0% of all area employment related to the development and construction business it is clear to me that our industry does more than pay for itself even before consideration of any entitlement and permit fees.  I am also a realist in that I am disappointedly certain that such fees will be a part of any jurisdictional overview of real property development.  Regardless, when governmental fees approach equality with project profit it is painfully clear to me that we have moved even further from a point of equity.
 
After my review I am left with the conclusion that the public and private sector elements of our industry need to come together to evaluate and refine almost every aspect of how we do business.   We should collectively endeavor to identify and eliminate all inefficiencies associated with the entitlement and design review processes employed by all jurisdictions in our community.  Our goal should be to redesign the present public/private business model so that it is less costly in terms of time and dollars.  The good news to this is that I am seeing signs almost every day that this process has begun and we just may have things figured out when market conditions again justify new development activity.

Scott Soelter
Senior Vice President
Grubb & Ellis Tucson
520.321.3344

Industrial Insight • Know What Drives the Owner – Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) • 3/9/11







When representing a tenant in a lease transaction, understanding what the owner considers important can help drive a better deal and serve the customer. Local investors, who need to make a mortgage payment, care mostly about monthly cash flow. This is also true for REITs in the aggregate, but it may not be the case for each individual transaction.

REIT performance is measured by a metric called Funds from Operations (FFO), which is a GAAP, not cash concept. Under GAAP, REITs report straight-line rent that takes into account all escalations and free rent, while completely ignoring the concept of time-value of money. Thus, while a local investor might not be able to afford a longer free rent period or a very low first-year rent with larger escalations, a REIT smoothes this cash flow and reports a constant income throughout the lease term. Structuring a lease payment that arrives at the same total rent obligation, but a more favorable present value of the rent stream can help clients and leave the owner indifferent.

REITs’ performance is also measured by few key operational statistics that shift some of the balance of power to tenants. The primary operational metric is occupancy. Offering higher occupancy can help secure better terms for the tenant than dealing with a private investor. ProLogis is a great example of occupancy focus.

At the beginning of the current downturn, ProLogis was very aggressive in dropping their rents below the prevailing market rents to keep their overall occupancy up. The second useful metric is tenant retention. This concept relates to renewals and REITs are very interested in showing high retention numbers. Capitalizing on this driver can help in renewal renegotiations as higher renewal rates can translate into higher stock multiples for REITs, leaving the tenant with more room to negotiate.

Of course, REITs are sophisticated, institutional owners that ultimately focus on earnings. The final metric, same store NOI growth, compares the rent on the expiring lease to the new rent for the same space. So, ultimately, rent matters. However, having a clearer understanding of all the decision variables of the market participant sitting across the table can help in structuring a better deal than flying blind.

Source: SEC Filings, Grubb & Ellis

Friday, March 4, 2011

20th annual CCIM event to honor five real estate legends

Please see the article at the link below on the upcoming CCIM Forecast in Inside Tucson Business.

20th annual CCIM event to honor five real estate legends

Good News Friday 3/4/2011





Stand and Deliver


Economists have been saying for several months that the labor market is due to break out of its slow-growth trajectory, and for several months they had been wrong as the monthly employment reports from the Labor Department fell short of expectations. Other indicators pointed to stronger growth, which gave the optimists – including the stock market – an excuse to shrug off the disappointing employment data. But lurking in the shadows was a fear that job growth could stay weak because regulations and taxes discouraged employers from hiring at the same time that the recession had taught them how to keep profits high with smaller headcounts.

Finally we got a report that lived up to expectations. The Labor Department announced this morning that employers added 192,000 net new payroll jobs in February comprised of 222,000 private sector jobs and a loss of 30,000 state and local government jobs. This was the strongest report since May 2010 when temporary hiring for the 2010 Census inflated the number. Revisions to the December and January totals added another 58,000. The gains were widespread last month including 47,000 in professional and business services (of which 15,500 were temp jobs), 40,000 in education and health services, 33,000 in manufacturing, 33,000 in construction (could be payback for January’s weather-related losses), 22,000 in transportation and warehousing and 21,000 in leisure and hospitality. Besides government, the only other major sector losing jobs was retail trade, down 8,100.

The household survey reported slightly better conditions in February. The unemployment rate moved lower for a third consecutive month to 8.9 percent, its lowest level since April 2009. The civilian labor force expanded by a modest 60,000 as more people looked for work, and the number of people reporting they had worked during the survey week increased by 250,000.

The labor market holds important clues for the performance of the office leasing market. If the economy generates an average of 200,000 net new jobs per month in 2011 compared with the 125,000 we used in our forecast model last November, it would knock an extra 50 basis points off the U.S. vacancy rate by year-end, i.e. 16.5 percent versus our forecast of 17.0 percent. Stronger job growth also will benefit shopping centers and apartment properties.

Have a great weekend.

Best regards,
Bob

Robert Bach
SVP, Chief Economist
Grubb & Ellis
312.698.6754