Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Hindsight Is 20/20, But Sometimes What You See Isn’t Pretty

By Scott Soelter, Senior Vice President, Grubb & Ellis Tucson

This story is a forensic accounting of the time and dollars involved in taking a modest commercial development from a dream to a reality.  I remember when I began the project with my partner, Chris Whitson, and promised myself that after all the dust settled I would go through the process of looking back and quantifying the days and money that were spent to get our modest undertaking to where it is today – almost finished!

To start the process, I took a moment to go through the hundreds of electronic files that are stored on the hard drive of my computer.  Now I realize that it’s less than trivial to anyone under the age of 30, but I am still amazed at the everyday technology represented by a personal computer.  In days past a hard copy archive of any development project consisted of thousands of sheets of paper, all different sizes, and required at least two to three drawers in a run of the mill metal filing cabinet.  I now know that the electronic archive of the project that is the subject of this exercise contains 1.25 gigabytes and it all fits within a small part of the computer that’s on my lap as I type.  I also now know that the earliest electronic file in this mass of bits and bytes is a letter written to Chris that initiated our partnership and it is dated August of 2006.  Further review of all this electronic data reminds me that we really started to get going on the project in November of 2007.  As we often see written in this business, this is the true point of beginning.

Riverfront Plaza

Before I get into the economic details, I want to take moment to describe the physical scope of our development that we call Riverfront Plaza.  The project is located along the north side of Irvington Road, just west of I-19, in the southwest region of metropolitan Tucson.  The entire site is zoned unrestricted C-1 (City of Tucson) and contains approximately 7.0 acres.  Before we got involved there was a 10,000sf multiple tenant retail building constructed on the site in 2000.  Based on our preliminary planning we intended to develop 4 more commercial pads on the remainder of the site that would accommodate a free standing restaurant/bar building, two multiple tenant retail buildings and an 18,000 square foot two-story professional office building.


Lot 3 – 18,000sf multi-tenant
professional office building (50.0% occupied)
In order to execute on our preliminary site planning we needed to prepare and apply for a revision to an earlier approved development plan as well as reconfigure lot lines that were established by an earlier plat.  Our engineering consultants made our initial submittals for the revisions to the development plan and the plat sometime in October of 2007 and, at that time we conservatively expected that we would have all necessary site related approvals within 9 months.  Three submittals and close to 27 months later we finally had our site related approvals which means it took 3 times longer than we had originally anticipated.  This is despite the fact that our submittals did not involve any variance requests and represented a reduction in yield in terms of total area of planned improvements compared to the previously approved plan.


Why did this seemingly simple process take so long?  On the public sector side of the line, I attribute a significant allocation of cause to the inefficient, mostly obsolete and overly zealous design review process that was the aggravating norm from a couple of years ago.  On the private sector side of things, the fact that the quality control associated with the submittal packages prepared by our engineering consultants was generally poor is also to blame.  Lastly, and from the “The Buck Stops Here” perspective, I need to take a lot of the responsibility in that, retrospectively, I lacked the recent experience and general knowledge of the overall process to the point that my supervision of the city regulated entitlement process and the product coming from our engineers was not what it should have been.  We can file all this into the drawer marked “Live & Learn”.

Lot 1 – 6,300sf Buffalo Wild Wings Grill & Bar


Now I’ll move on to the economics of the deal.  To present this perspective, I am going to focus specifically on the 18,000 square foot professional office building that I mentioned earlier.  We began construction on the shell portion of this building late in 2009 and finished it in April of 2010.  Tenant improvements for the 9,000 square feet of preleased space were completed late in 2010.  In terms of land costs, site design and entitlement costs, as well as the cost associated with the necessary site improvements, a summary of the costs allocated to this building are as follows:



Land (25.0% allocation of total)                                                 $265,000
Site Entitlement Cost (25.0% allocation of total)                           60,000
Site Improvement Cost (25.0% allocation of total)                       260,000
Total Site Related Costs                                                              $585,000

Note:  Approximately $9,000, or about 15.0%, of the site entitlement costs were in the form of 23 different fees paid to governmental entities during the site entitlement process.

In terms of vertical costs, or those costs directly associated with constructing the building, we spent approximately $3,125,000 which breaks down as follows:


Building Design & Other Soft Costs                                         $650,000
Building Hard Costs (Shell & TI’s)                                           2,475,000
Total Site Related Costs                                                        $3,125,000

Note:  Approximately $180,000, or about 27.7%, of the “Building Design & Other Soft Costs” were in the form of 15 different fees paid to governmental entities during the building plan approval and permitting process.


Therefore, when all tenant improvements are in place (we still have 9,000 square feet in shell condition), the total cost of the building will come in at about $3,710,000.  Of this amount, $189,000, or about $10.50/square foot of building cost, was in the form of 38 checks written at 38 different times to a variety of city, county and state entities in order to be granted the “privilege” to commence construction.  The fees that stand out because of their magnitude are as follows:

·   $110,000.00 paid to the City of Tucson for impact fees related to the office use designation of the building.

·   $28,000.00 paid to Pima County Waste Water Management for sewer connection fees associated with the fixtures designed into 4 common area restrooms and a janitor closet.

·   $16,000.00 paid to Tucson Water for a 2” water meter hook up.


·   $10,557.43 paid to Tucson Water for a “permit and inspection fee” related to the permit and inspection related to the construction of underground water lines that we built and paid for to serve our site.

The fee that stands out the most in terms “how did they figure that one out” was the $10,557.43 fee paid for the permit and inspection of underground water line construction.  Again, this fee is related to the construction of onsite and offsite water facilities that we paid for entirely – nothing was “given” to us.  Not only do I consider the amount to be ridiculously high, insult was added to injury when it was explained to me that Tucson Water was in a “cost recovery mode” and therefore part of the amount was a $57.43 charge to recover the cost to process the permit and my payment.  Based on this explanation I’m thinking that medical marijuana must have been available to some long before others!  All in all, based on the appraised value of the building at the time of construction, the total of all of the governmental fees was equal to our project profit. 


Lot 4 – 10,000sf multi-tenant
retail building (100.0% occupied)
What’s my point to all this?  I freely admit that there is not a fee I enjoy paying and that I take a contrarian view to the overly used mantra that “Development doesn’t pay for itself”.  I am thoroughly convinced that this is a fallacious premise to frame any debate on the topic.  With somewhere between 20.0% and 25.0% of all area employment related to the development and construction business it is clear to me that our industry does more than pay for itself even before consideration of any entitlement and permit fees.  I am also a realist in that I am disappointedly certain that such fees will be a part of any jurisdictional overview of real property development.  Regardless, when governmental fees approach equality with project profit it is painfully clear to me that we have moved even further from a point of equity.
 
After my review I am left with the conclusion that the public and private sector elements of our industry need to come together to evaluate and refine almost every aspect of how we do business.   We should collectively endeavor to identify and eliminate all inefficiencies associated with the entitlement and design review processes employed by all jurisdictions in our community.  Our goal should be to redesign the present public/private business model so that it is less costly in terms of time and dollars.  The good news to this is that I am seeing signs almost every day that this process has begun and we just may have things figured out when market conditions again justify new development activity.

Scott Soelter
Senior Vice President
Grubb & Ellis Tucson
520.321.3344

Industrial Insight • Know What Drives the Owner – Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) • 3/9/11







When representing a tenant in a lease transaction, understanding what the owner considers important can help drive a better deal and serve the customer. Local investors, who need to make a mortgage payment, care mostly about monthly cash flow. This is also true for REITs in the aggregate, but it may not be the case for each individual transaction.

REIT performance is measured by a metric called Funds from Operations (FFO), which is a GAAP, not cash concept. Under GAAP, REITs report straight-line rent that takes into account all escalations and free rent, while completely ignoring the concept of time-value of money. Thus, while a local investor might not be able to afford a longer free rent period or a very low first-year rent with larger escalations, a REIT smoothes this cash flow and reports a constant income throughout the lease term. Structuring a lease payment that arrives at the same total rent obligation, but a more favorable present value of the rent stream can help clients and leave the owner indifferent.

REITs’ performance is also measured by few key operational statistics that shift some of the balance of power to tenants. The primary operational metric is occupancy. Offering higher occupancy can help secure better terms for the tenant than dealing with a private investor. ProLogis is a great example of occupancy focus.

At the beginning of the current downturn, ProLogis was very aggressive in dropping their rents below the prevailing market rents to keep their overall occupancy up. The second useful metric is tenant retention. This concept relates to renewals and REITs are very interested in showing high retention numbers. Capitalizing on this driver can help in renewal renegotiations as higher renewal rates can translate into higher stock multiples for REITs, leaving the tenant with more room to negotiate.

Of course, REITs are sophisticated, institutional owners that ultimately focus on earnings. The final metric, same store NOI growth, compares the rent on the expiring lease to the new rent for the same space. So, ultimately, rent matters. However, having a clearer understanding of all the decision variables of the market participant sitting across the table can help in structuring a better deal than flying blind.

Source: SEC Filings, Grubb & Ellis

Friday, March 4, 2011

20th annual CCIM event to honor five real estate legends

Please see the article at the link below on the upcoming CCIM Forecast in Inside Tucson Business.

20th annual CCIM event to honor five real estate legends

Good News Friday 3/4/2011





Stand and Deliver


Economists have been saying for several months that the labor market is due to break out of its slow-growth trajectory, and for several months they had been wrong as the monthly employment reports from the Labor Department fell short of expectations. Other indicators pointed to stronger growth, which gave the optimists – including the stock market – an excuse to shrug off the disappointing employment data. But lurking in the shadows was a fear that job growth could stay weak because regulations and taxes discouraged employers from hiring at the same time that the recession had taught them how to keep profits high with smaller headcounts.

Finally we got a report that lived up to expectations. The Labor Department announced this morning that employers added 192,000 net new payroll jobs in February comprised of 222,000 private sector jobs and a loss of 30,000 state and local government jobs. This was the strongest report since May 2010 when temporary hiring for the 2010 Census inflated the number. Revisions to the December and January totals added another 58,000. The gains were widespread last month including 47,000 in professional and business services (of which 15,500 were temp jobs), 40,000 in education and health services, 33,000 in manufacturing, 33,000 in construction (could be payback for January’s weather-related losses), 22,000 in transportation and warehousing and 21,000 in leisure and hospitality. Besides government, the only other major sector losing jobs was retail trade, down 8,100.

The household survey reported slightly better conditions in February. The unemployment rate moved lower for a third consecutive month to 8.9 percent, its lowest level since April 2009. The civilian labor force expanded by a modest 60,000 as more people looked for work, and the number of people reporting they had worked during the survey week increased by 250,000.

The labor market holds important clues for the performance of the office leasing market. If the economy generates an average of 200,000 net new jobs per month in 2011 compared with the 125,000 we used in our forecast model last November, it would knock an extra 50 basis points off the U.S. vacancy rate by year-end, i.e. 16.5 percent versus our forecast of 17.0 percent. Stronger job growth also will benefit shopping centers and apartment properties.

Have a great weekend.

Best regards,
Bob

Robert Bach
SVP, Chief Economist
Grubb & Ellis
312.698.6754

Monday, February 28, 2011

Industrial Insight - Sustained Double-Digit Rent Growth is on the Horizon


February 24, 2011

Sustained Double-Digit Rent Growth is on the Horizon

By Rene Circ, Vice President, National Director of Research, Industrial

It is difficult to come out and predict two to three consecutive years of near or above 10 percent rent growth following the three worst years in most people’s memories. However, this is precisely the time to start considering the possibility.

Most of the shadow space has already been absorbed

Industrial real estate has been slow to come out of its recession. Aggregate demand, measured by net absorption, did not turn positive until three quarters after the official end of the recession. The slow recovery can be attributed to the unprecedented amount of shadow space – space that is occupied, but not utilized – that needed to be absorbed before companies started to need new space. Grubb & Ellis calculates that total industrial shadow space, at its peak, exceeded 100 million square feet. Three recorded consecutive quarters of positive net absorption demonstrate that the above-equilibrium shadow space has been absorbed and business growth is driving demand for new industrial real estate.

U.S. economy is expected to grow at above its potential

The U.S. economy grew 2.8 percent in 2010 and currently stands just above its pre-recession high. From the total output perspective, the economy is officially out of recovery and in a new expansionary cycle. Most recent indicators suggest that economic growth will accelerate in 2011 to between 3.5 and 4 percent. Growth of this magnitude will translate into stronger job creation and consumer confidence. Also, near record-high corporate profits and cash positions will spur business investment as revenue-growth driven profits replace cost-cutting driven ones. Economic risks, such as rising oil prices due to the unrest in the Middle East, exist, but the current outlook for 2011 remains positive.

Net effective rents are down 30 to 50 percent across the nation

On a national level, net effective rents are down 30 percent from their peak. In some markets, rents have fallen as much as 50 percent over the past two to three years. The total decline is the aggregate of lower face rents and rising landlord concessions. New, longer-term tenants still receive one month of free rent per year of term, which alone reduces the effective rate by approximately 8 percent. Additional concessions, such as moving allowances and larger tenant improvement packages, push the effective rates still lower. Meanwhile, Grubb & Ellis statistics show that the national vacancy rate has declined 50 basis points from its peak and net asking rents are stabilizing. The two-year downward pressure on rents is easing across the nation and landlord concessions can tightened very quickly as new tenants absorb key vacancies.

New construction is not profitable without significant rent growth

At the end of fourth quarter of 2010, only about 12 million square feet were under construction. At this rate, 2011 may be the year with the lowest new deliveries on record. Yet, current rent levels do not justify new construction. If developers require a 10 percent unleveraged return, assuming zero cost of land and $47 per square foot total soft and hard costs, tenant improvements and leasing commissions, they need a triple net rent of $4.32 per square foot. The table below shows the required net rents assuming land costs are $2 per square foot, keeping the other costs unchanged. 

Exit Cap / IRR           10%          15%          20%
7.0%                          $4.47        $4.75       $5.05
7.5%                          $4.78        $5.09       $5.40
8.0%                          $5.09        $5.42       $5.76

Today, market net effective rents are below these rent figures, preventing most developers from starting projects on a speculative basis – only 2 million square feet are currently under construction on a speculative basis across the country.

Net effective rents must rise considerably

The next three years will see strong tenant demand and Grubb & Ellis expects vacancies to fall into the single digits by the end of 2011. It is difficult to generalize the industrial real estate market, as rents and land prices vary considerably market-to-market. However, on average, net effective rents are 20 to 30 percent below rents necessary to justify investments in new, speculative industrial projects. The combination of strong demand and profit-constrained supply will create a space scarcity and push rents up quickly and considerably. Rent declines were unprecedented over the past two years and the experienced double-digit declines will need to be reversed at similar speeds, if market equilibrium is to be achieved.

Source: Grubb & Ellis

Friday, February 25, 2011

Good News Friday 2/25/2011


Inflation’s Silver Lining


A gap is opening between Main Street and Washington (yet another gap, I guess you could say), and this one involves inflation expectations. Federal Reserve officials have repeated again and again that they don’t think inflation will take hold anytime soon because there is so much excess capacity weighing down the economy in the form of unemployed workers, too many houses, low rates of factory utilization and vacant commercial space. Most mainstream economists agree with that assessment. Yet when I speak with individual investors, I always ask for a show of hands on whether they think inflation will become problematic in the next year or two, and nearly everyone in the room raises a hand. Households are feeling inflation in the form of higher gas and food prices, and businesses are seeing it in higher input prices for their products.

The silver lining for property owners is that commercial real estate functions as an inflation hedge. Leases usually are written with annual rent bumps often tied to the consumer price index or a fixed rate of increase. And as construction costs rise, as they have been lately, the cost to replace existing properties also rises. During the last serious bout of inflation in the U.S. thirty years ago, commercial real estate returns as measured by the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (the red line in the nearby graph) handily beat the CPI (the blue line) even though the early 1980s saw back-to-back recessions, the second of which in 1981 and 1982 was severe. Real estate lets investors hedge against inflation, which could be one reason for the 120-percent gain in the dollar volume of commercial property sales transactions last year compared with 2009.

Have a great weekend.

Best regards,
Bob

Robert Bach
SVP, Chief Economist
Grubb & Ellis
312.698.6754

Friday, February 18, 2011

Good News Friday 2/18/2011





Silver Lining


The chatter on the economic front lately has been about inflation. We’re feeling it in the form of higher energy and food prices in the U.S. while other countries, particularly fast-growing emerging markets such as China and Brazil, are feeling it across the board. Some say it’s no coincidence that the demonstrations in Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries come at a time of high food prices.

Will broad inflation take root in this country? Most mainstream economists think the answer is no, at least not in the next couple of years, because so much slack remains in the form of unemployed workers, empty homes, high vacancy rates in commercial properties, low factory utilization rates, and so on. The Federal Reserve expects headline inflation to remain “subdued” this year, and private economists largely agree. Economists at Wells Fargo, for example, think that core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy, will rise 1.1 percent this year and 1.7 percent next year – still within the Federal Reserve’s informal target range of 1.5 to 2.0 percent.

Although it’s rare for inflation to flare up when there is a lot of excess capacity in the economy, it’s not impossible. “Stagflation,” a hard-to-fight combination of sluggish growth and high inflation, plagued the economy in the 1970s.

If legislators can develop a long-term plan to reduce budget deficits and control debt, it would go a long way toward reassuring the financial markets than inflation can be controlled even as the recovery gains momentum and the excess capacity is put back into production. Being an optimist, I think it will happen before the 2012 elections.



Have a great weekend.

Best regards,
Bob

Robert Bach
SVP, Chief Economist
Grubb & Ellis
312.698.6754